Change will come to the Persian Gulf countries one way or another. Given that change stems primarily from domestic factors, there is probably little that outside powers can do to influence the course of events in the Gulf region. Meanwhile, no matter what happens in the region, and who holds power there, Japan must purchase oil and gas from Gulf producers. Perhaps the only comfort is that the rulers of Gulf oil producing countries also have no alternative; they must export these commodities.
Sooner or later, the regime in Iraq will collapse. Thereafter, the major challenge will be to maintain the unity of the country, and, if possible, forestall the reemergence of a dictator. Preventing Iraq from sliding into civil war like Afghanistan, and assisting the Iraqi people to rebuild their country, is the responsibility of the international community as well as Iraqis themselves. Iraq is far too important to be allowed to destroy itself. Cooperation among neighboring states (including Iran) and outslde powers is a prerequisite for preventing Iraq's self-destruction.
Iran remains the key to tke Persian Gulf. There is a debate about its international behavior, but its society is steadily changing. Iranians respond to Islamic slogans with little enthusiasm. Their waning commitment is reflected in the composition of the Iranian parliament elected in 1996, which contained fewer conservative mullahs and more women than ever. The city of Tehran is cleaner, bedecked by flowers rather than revolutionary graffiti. Capturing the sentiment of the times, big Iranian hotels have begun to honor credit cards like Visa and Master Card. These changes prepared the way for Mohammad Khatami's upset victory in the presidential election last May.
Just nine years have passed since Ayatollah Khomeini's death, and only ten years have elapsed since the Iran's war with Iraq ended. Recognizing that it takes time for revolutionary fervor to cool down, the best course of action for outside powers to adopt may be simply to allow this process to continue. Meanwhlie, one hopes that US policy towards Iran will correspondingly evolve.
雑誌名
放送大学研究年報
巻
15
ページ
23 - 33
発行年
1998-03-31
ISSN
0911-4505
書誌レコードID
AN10019636
放送大学機関リポジトリとは
放送大学機関リポジトリ（The Open University of Japan Repository）では、放送大学で生産された学術成果を収集・蓄積し、広く公開しています。
『ペルシア湾岸情勢と日米関係』
NO_15-23-33
(929.74KB)
